New demograhical pathways towards a rise of the natural increase rate

Demography has a capital importance for the modern  world, since we are living in a context of continuous populational changes. Demographic dynamics influences directly the economy of a country,  public health services and can even play a huge role in the general politics of a region. In this study, by assessing  the natural dynamics of the Romanian population  from 1930, until 2007, we tried to identify new correlations between specific indicators, in order to better describe different demographical phenomenon and solve eventual problems linked with them.  The results showed that the natural increase rate is not, as expected, correlated with the rate of death, but it’s influenced by the rate of marriages and the rate of births. The divorces rate is correlated in a significant manner (p<0,01)  with the crude birth rate and with the natural increase rate . To better assess these correlations, we worked out an equation, taking in account as dependent variable the crude birth rate and as independent variables, the rates of divorces and marriages. The equation was verified by the SPSS program (R and R square values were close to the maximal value 1) and by ANOVA test.The results obtained were new and showed interesting points of view regarding the correlation between the above demographical indicators.

Divorces and marriages highly influenced the birth rate, the rate of divorces being 3 times more influent than the rate of marriages. One divorce lowers with 9 the birth rate and one marriage rises it with 3 . In conclusion, putting in place general measures to sustain economically and socially the stability of married couples, in order to avoid the growth of divorces` rate is an essential goal for a country aiming to obtain a rise of its population.