Demographic challenges for public health in Mexico

This paper seeks to analyze the relationship among demographic conditions, social marginalization and health equity in Mexico and to identify challenges for the health system in coming years. The information about population and other studied variables was obtained from official sources. Demographic and statistical methods were used for data analysis; thus, the 32 states of the country were ordered by quartiles according to theirs social marginalization level in year 2005 (quartile I lowest marginalization, quartile IV highest marginalization); also, demographic projections to 2025 were analyzed for the country and for each quartile; health indicators were estimated by quartile and ratios were calculated among extreme quartiles. Results show that although Mexican population is immersed in a quick process of aging, the absolute number of children <15 years in 2025 will be seemed to the current figure and the average of annual births will only diminish lightly among 2005 and 2025. A remarkable socio-demographic diversity is also evidenced in the country: the quartile IV –where are the poorest states of Mexico, like Chiapas and Oaxaca- presents the highest total fertility rate and the highest number of children in absolute terms -in 2005 as in 2025- as well as the highest volume of inhabitants for this last date. Findings reveal the existence –at least in next 20 years- of a “coexistence of demands” in health care terms, as much of increasing elderly people as the maternal and child population. This is a formidable challenge for the Mexican public health, particularly because the magnitude of social inequalities in the country. In such a sense, the health system should favour a better redistribution of the public resources for health and to implement strategies that allow actually a universal access to the health services to try to reduce the evident health inequities existent in Mexico