Analysis of dengue fever epidemic and the socio-economic conditions

The objective of this is study was to examine the outbreak of dengue fever and its socio-economic context in 2001 and 2002 in Rio de Janeiro Municipality. An ecological study was conducted, and the average mean dengue fever rate was calculated on the basis of the cases of dengue fever notified through on the information obtained at the neighborhood level  between epidemiological weeks 48 – 2001 and 20 - 2002, corresponding to the second phase of the epidemic process.  The outbreak of dengue fever was correlated to socio-economic variables through of Pearsons correlation test.  The Global and Local Moran’s Index was used to assess the spatial auto-correlation between dengue fever and significant variables.  In order to analyze the relationship between dengue fever and its socio-economic context, the Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model was used, as well as the Conditional Auto-Regression (CAR) spatial model. The variables presenting significant correlations were: percentage of households connected to the general sanitary network, percentage of households with clothes washing machines, and population density by urban area.  The spatial auto-correlation index disclosed the occurrence of spatial dependence for dengue fever and for the significant variables.  Both the MLR and the CAR models indicated the percentage of households connected to the general sanitary network as the sole variable significantly associated with this disease. The residual figures in both models disclose a significant spatial auto-correlation with a positive Moran’s Index (p<0,001) for the MLR, and a negative (p=0,005) outcome for the CAR.7