Dengue in the metropolitan area of Recife, Brazil: Possible effects of global climate change

Dengue is an infectious transmissible disease characterized by an acute fever, rash and protracted malaise. It is caused by an arbovirus of the Flaviviridae family, which has four serotypes, and is considered an important global public health problem. Patients, mostly children, suffering a second infection with a different serotype can develop a severe form of dengue, which causes a hemorrhagic fever and shock syndrome. As a vector-borne disease, dengue is transmitted to man mostly by the Aedes aegypti mosquito in tropical areas, since its distribution is limited by temperature. Cold weather kills Aedes aegypti and its larvae rapidly. Several studies suggested that climate and socio-environmental conditions, such as temperature, rainfall and regular access to water, influence the transmission patterns of dengue. If Global Climate Change will result in warmer temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns, it may affect the distribution, prevalence and severity of infectious diseases like dengue. The studied area, Recife, is a major metropolis located in the northeastern coast of Brazil. It had high incidence of dengue in last disease outbreaks. The local rainfall pattern is mostly controlled by the evaporation of seawater in the nearby coast. In the last IPCC report, there are few projections, which could affect this area. The predicted South Atlantic Ocean warming may result in sea level rise, flooding coastal areas, and increasing seawater evaporation, which consecutively might enlarge the rainfall locally. Thus, these factors combined, might amplify the geographical extension and period of occurrence of the disease, given that a seasonal pattern for dengue is observed with prevalence occurring during rainy tropical summers. The objective of this research was to study the possible impacts of Global Climate change in the dengue outbreaks in the Recife metropolitan area. To achieve this aim, health information was analyzed and correlated with climatic and oceanographic data.