Beyond 2015: Millennium Development Goals in An Integrative Perspective

The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) aim to improve basic quality of life, and are leading on the agenda for international policy on development and sustainable poverty reduction. Health has a prominent position though the strong interrelation between the health-related MDGS and the other, such as hunger, poverty and environment calls for an integrated approach. Unlike most MDG assessments, this study adopted an integrated approach (People-Planet-Profit) in which a long-term perspective is taken in exploring short- and medium-term actions. The analyses are done is done using the Global Integrated Sustainability Model (GISMO) which enables to analyze human development in relation to global environmental changes, demographic transition and income gaps.

 Although substantial progress has been made over the last 15 years, the analyses in this study show this to be insufficient for achieving all goals in all regions by 2015. Many of the goals will not even be achieved by 2030. The analyses in this study show that reducing child mortality by two-thirds seems to be the most difficult target, requiring substantial additional development policy efforts. For sub-Saharan Africa, child mortality figures may not have been halved until at least 2030.

 A considerable proportion of these child deaths will still be related to poverty and hunger (MDG1), lack of safe drinking water and sanitation (MDG7), and the use of coal and wood for cooking and heating. In sub-Saharan Africa, the MDG of halving poverty may not be achieved until 2030. The goal to halve hunger will probably also not be achieved in most developing regions. We expect that, by 2030, the number of people suffering from hunger would remain at 700 million. This studies shows that the deaths of millions of children could be avoided through increased agricultural productivity, efficient water use and the availability of clean and affordable energy.