Halting and Reversing the Spread of HIV/AIDS by 2015: The Case in Ethiopia

 

"Halting and reversing the spread of HIV/AIDS by 2015: The case in Ethiopia"

 

Background: The MDG 6 seeks to halt and reverse the spread of HIV by 2015. In the Political Declaration on HIV/AIDS (2006), countries committed to provide universal access to HIV prevention, treatment, care and support services by 2010. Towards universal access, Ethiopia made significant progresses. However, whether these achievements will lead to the achievement of MDG 6 is a question to be answered.

 

Objectives: The aim of this study is to predict whether Ethiopia can halt and reverse the spread of HIV/AIDS by 2015 based on the progresses made so far and taking in to account the constant indicator assumption for prediction

 

Methods: National level HIV/AIDS prevalence and incidence data were analyzed from different sources. Five levels of analysis were used for ten major HIV/AIDS indicators. The analysis included description of trends of progresses made so far, development of best-fit models and prediction for future points for the national HIV/AIDS indicators.

 

Results: The Prevalence of HIV at PMTCT settings has decreased from 8% in 2006 to 2% in 2010 and will be 0.33% in 2015 (Y=0.11e^-0.532x, R²=0.99). The prevalence of HIV among HCT beneficiaries has decreased from 13.7 % in 2006 to 1.5% in 2010 and will be 0.001% in 2015 (Y=0.216e^-0.533x, R²=0.97). The prevalence of HIV from ANC surveillance sites has decreased from 8.2% in 2003 to 3.8% in 2007 and will be 0.8% in 2015 (Y=0.118e^-0.38x, R²=0.99). HIV prevalence among 15-24 years age group has decreased from 12.4% in 2000 to 3.5% in 2007 and will be 1.2% in 2015 (Y=25.37e^-0.38x, R²=0.98).

Conclusion: The prevalence of HIV has shown an exponentially decreasing trend during the last five years. Maintaining such rate of decline could lead to the effective attainment of the MDG 6.