Estimating the Risk of Osteosarcoma Among Ethiopians Population Exposed to Fluoride in Drinking Water, and Cost Effective Control

Abstract

Introduction: osteosarcoma is a very rare primary malignant tumor of bone, and developed in new tissue of growing bones and occurs most commonly in children. Fluoride appears to have the potential to initiate or promote cancers, particularly of the bone, but the evidence to date is tentative and mixed. Osteosarcoma is of particular concern as a potential effect of fluoride because of chemical characteristics of fluoride. Fluoride is widely distributed in ground and surface water of both high land and low land areas of Ethiopian, which 10-15 million population used for drinking.

Objective: The objective of this paper was to estimate risk of osteosarcoma in Ethiopian population exposed to fluoride from drinking water and to recommend cost-effective control.

Methods: Exposure and other supportive data were collected from article available on line. An Analytica model 4.2 versions was used through out all result calculation.

Result: Annual population risk of 244 cases of osteosarcoma was estimated. Defluoridation and alternative treated water supply are the control option used to minimize the risk. Accordingly based on the Analytica model the minimum total social cost of control option was Defluoridation with annual cost of 17 million USD, and alternative treated water supply cost 24 million USD. 

Conclusion: The result of this study was not robust to use for decision purpose rather indicative of further epidemiological studies to support or refute this estimation; and to extend this study in future.

Key words: Osteosarcoma, Analytica model, risk assessment, fluoride exposure, Ethiopia, total social cost.